Definition
Likely event
A likely event is more likely to happen than not, but is not certain.
What it means
More than half of the chance points toward “yes,” but some chance still points toward “no.” The word is qualitative, so a task should state or show the probability model rather than rely on a guess.
Remember it
More than half the chance points toward yes.
Example
A bag contains nine star tokens and three circle tokens. Drawing a star has probability 9/12 = 3/4, so drawing a star is likely but not certain.
Watch for
An event with probability exactly 1/2 has an even chance, not a likely event under this scale.
Common mix-up
Likely does not mean guaranteed. Even a 3/4 event can fail on the next trial.
Exact meaning
On AXIO’s elementary probability scale, an event is likely when its probability is greater than 1/2 and less than 1. Its complement is therefore less likely.